On Black Friday last year, the Bears fired coach Matt Eberflus. Fast forward a year later, rookie coach Ben Johnson has Chicago at 9–3 with control of the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoff picture.
The Bears might be for real after outmuscling the Eagles with a stout rushing attack en route to a 24–15 victory on Friday. Surprisingly, all four underdogs won during the holiday schedule, causing plenty of movement when it comes to playoff seeding.
On Thursday, the Week 13 slate began on Turkey Day with the Packers visiting the Lions and beating them, 31–24, earning a season sweep of Detroit. Green Bay is now 8-3-1, putting it percentage points behind the Bears in the NFC North.
In the final game of Thanksgiving, the Ravens lost control of the AFC North after falling to the Bengals, 32–14. The middle of the three Thanksgiving games saw the surging Cowboys increase their playoff hopes after the 31–28 upset over the Chiefs.
Chicago takes on the Eagles in Philadelphia for the Black Friday game, which means the Bears will either be the No. 2 seed going into the weekend, or the No. 6.
Elsewhere, there are a ton of massive games ahead this week including the Texans and Colts tangling on Sunday in the early window and the Steelers hosting the Bills in a key AFC battle. In the NFC, keep an eye on the Rams and Panthers, who are facing each other on Sunday in Charlotte.
Let’s now get to the playoff pictures, starting with the AFC.
AFC: Who’s InNo. 1: New England Patriots
Record: 10–2 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 99%
The Patriots will host the two-win Giants on , attempting to win their 11th game of the season.
No. 2: Denver Broncos
Record: 9–2 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 97%
The Broncos are coming off their bye and will travel to play the Commanders on , likely facing Marcus Mariota.
No. 3: Indianapolis Colts
Record: 8–3 | Opponents left above .500: 6 | Playoff probability: 86%
After losing two of their last three games, the Colts are going home to play at Lucas Oil Stadium for the first time in a month, taking on the Texans.
No. 4: Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 6–5 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 39%
The Ravens couldn’t hold onto the football or the AFC North lead during their ugly loss against the Bengals. The Steelers will be eating their Thanksgiving leftovers with giant smiles after regaining first place in the division. Pittsburgh hosts Buffalo on Sunday.
No. 5: Los Angeles Chargers
Record: 7–4 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 64%
The Chargers are fresh off their bye and now get the closest thing to a double-bye, getting to host the Raiders at SoFi Stadium.
No. 6: Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 7–4 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 81%
Jacksonville escaped from Arizona with an overtime win last week, and now have a shorter trip this week to play against the one-win Titans.
No. 7: Buffalo Bills
Record: 7–4 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 82%
After falling against the Texans last Thursday night, Buffalo had a mini-bye and now visits the Steelers this Sunday in the late window.
NFC: Who’s InNo. 1: Los Angeles Rams
Record: 9–2 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 99%
After beating the Buccaneers on Sunday night in dominant fashion, the Rams travel cross-country to face the 6–6 Panthers in the early window on Sunday.
No. 2: Chicago Bears
Record: 9–3 | Opponents left above .500: 5 | Playoff probability: 74%
A lot was made of the Bears’ grueling remaining schedule. But don’t expect them to fade after defeating the Eagles on Black Friday. Chicago and its stout rushing attack now travels to Green Bay next week with first place in the NFC North up for grabs.
No. 3: Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 8–4 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 95%
The Eagles have a laundry list of problems after a two-game skid against the Cowboys and Bears. On the bright side, the schedule will get easier with two matchups against the Commanders and one vs. the Raiders in the final five games of the season.
No. 4: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 6–5 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 75%
Baker Mayfield is dealing with a left shoulder injury, making it likely the Buccaneers have to start Teddy Bridgewater against the Cardinals in their home game on Sunday.
No. 5: Seattle Seahawks
Record: 8–3 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 91%
Seattle handled business last weekend against the Titans, and now get the Vikings with rookie undrafted free agent quarterback Max Brosmer getting the start against Seattle.
No. 6: Green Bay Packers
Record: 8–3–1 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 94%
The Packers beat the Lions on Thanksgiving, putting them in position to jump into the NFC North lead come Friday evening should the Eagles beat the Bears in Philadelphia.
No. 7: San Francisco 49ers
Record: 8–4 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 88%
After beating the Panthers on Monday night despite three Brock Purdy interceptions, San Francisco is headed to Cleveland for an early afternoon game against the Browns.
