Possibly the most interesting, exciting and nerve-wracking final to a Premier League season could be shaping up as four teams in Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Newcastle compete for the final Champions League place. Recent history suggests that both Arsenal and Chelsea would be the more likely to grab the final spot, but both, like Liverpool and Newcastle have problems which could significantly weaken their attempts at getting into the competition next season. A reflection of the excitement and competition of the Premier League, or simply the poor quality of the teams who should be creating a big gap between them and their nearest rivals for fourth place in the league? Of course, that’s not to assume that Tottenham are nailed on favourites to finish third, or even higher. Harry Redknapp’s side do go into a challenging run of games and their top four credentials will be tested. But if the top three were to remain as it is, there will be an interesting battle for the four remaining teams fighting for that position.
Chelsea have always seemed likely to clinch the final spot. Their squad is equipped with the experience to complete a league season, whatever their final ambitions are, and they certainly have the quality to finish above their rivals. But with a young, inexperienced manager who is struggling to adapt to life in England, as well as to take control of a seemingly powerful Chelsea dressing room, they might just be lacking in the leadership that has ensured them of Champions League football in the past. Recent results in the league have also not gone their way, with the disappointing draw against Manchester United highlighting the unpredictability and inconsistency of this Chelsea side. The Fernando Torres story has not made Andre Villas-Boas’ job any easier as he tries desperately to find a way of bringing the best out of the striker; Didier Drogba, who is any on international duty, is no longer the same player, and the lack of creativity from midfield has sometimes had an affect on results. At this stage with the club sitting in fourth place, they would do extremely well to remain there with competition so fierce. It might just be the pressure on the manager’s shoulders that forces a number of mistakes and slip ups in the remaining fixtures of the season.
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Surprisingly, Newcastle may be in the best position to establish themselves as fourth place favourites this season. Alan Pardew has already performed wonders for the club, and at the moment it seems like there is little he can’t achieve. The impressive strike partnership for Newcastle of the Senegalese duo Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse are the keys for club if they are to cement a Champions League place. Ba has shown his consistency over the season already and Cisse announced himself in spectacular fashion on the weekend. Inexperience may play it’s part against Newcastle, and like any team, they are a couple of big injuries or a poor result from heading back the other way in the league. But as is evident by Newcastle’s performances this season, there is far too much quality and work-rate in the side for them to simply crumble under the pressure, and most importantly, unlike the other teams, they have absolutely nothing to lose if they don’t get fourth. The team have done well to move on potentially disruptive influences in the dressing room and managed to remain at the top end of the league following their impressive start to the season. There is every reason that they could cap a wonderful turnaround from relegation and qualify for the Champions League.
The fact that Arsenal’s league season only really started in September and then took another big hit over January suggests this team may be lacking in a something extra to help them over the line. There are a number of uncertainties both on the field and in the boardroom that may become too big a distraction for team, and they have certainly been lacking in any consistent goal threat beyond Robin van Persie. The fact that there is so much competition for the final Champions League place and Arsenal’s patchy form could mean that the club are unlikely to enter the competition once again. But the emergence of Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain could be a big, big boost for the club. We’ve not seen the same kind of ability, aggression and positive effect on the pitch from many other players in the Arsenal squad this season, and Arsene Wenger’s choice to unleash the youngster may have come at just the right time with enough games left in the season. The return of key players from injury and the likelihood that van Persie’s scoring form is set to continue into this year might be enough for the club to grab fourth spot. It will be difficult but not impossible for Wenger’s side.
Liverpool, however, seem the most unlikely to make it into the Champions League. Despite their good start to the season and their results over the big teams this season, there is too much inconsistency from Kenny Dalglish’s side. The fact that a lot of their focus will be on the League and FA Cups mean their squad will be stretched maybe too far to be successful on every front. Not to suggest Arsenal and Chelsea don’t have distractions in other competitions, its just there seems to be so much working against Liverpool at this time. The Luis Saurez affair is something football would like to move on from but remains prominent, and Andy Carroll, despite his recent goal against Wolves, is still not doing enough for the team. Noticeable improvements yes, but the goals need to come if Liverpool are to challenge on three fronts. The lack of goals from other new additions to the squad have also not helped Liverpool’s cause this season, and their disappointing results against lesser sides and too many home draws may be enough to keep the club away from the Champions League for another season. The return and good form of Steven Gerrard has and will continue to be a blessing for the side, but the desire and chance to do well in other cup competitions means Dalglish’s side may just have too much to do.
Again, it seems that without the pressure the other teams have and their significant firepower up front, Newcastle may be the most likely to grab the Champions League spot. To suggest they’ll simply drop off as the seasons winds down would greatly dismiss the fantastic job Alan Pardew has done this season. They’ll definitely run it very, very close because of the quality in their side, but inexperience could still play a part when results matter. As for Arsenal, at the moment they look like to be on the ascendancy on many levels. The injury set-back of Jack Wilshere may not be as detrimental to the club’s ambition this season due to Oxlade-Chamberlain’s impact and the fact that the attention has shifted from the doom and gloom of another injury to a key player. But as has been mentioned, it only takes one injury or a damaging defeat to shatter Arsenal’s fragile mentality. By far the most vulnerable of all the sides but perhaps with just enough stability to see off Chelsea and Liverpool and the experience to get ahead of Newcastle.
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