At a quick glance, John Murray noticed many future bets came in on the Los Angeles Rams to win Super Bowl LIX. But it wasn’t until his second look that he realized his Las Vegas sportsbook would be rooting hard against the Rams in 2024.
“Sheesh, we do not want the Rams to win the NFC West,” says Murray, the Director of Sports and Race at the Westgate SuperBook. “They’re betting Rams.”
Murray is referring to the “sharps,” the well-informed bettors known for taking money from sportsbooks around Las Vegas. With plenty of sharp action on the Rams, they went from being 40–1 favorites to win the Super Bowl to 25–1 as of Wednesday. Many bets have been placed on Matthew Stafford to win MVP, too, according to Murray.
“I’ve been real surprised by it, personally,” Murray says. “It’s a tough division. Aaron Donald not being there, that’s a pretty big loss. I mean, he’s one of the best defensive players I’ve ever seen. They’ve got a tremendous coach, and I know they’ve had some good draft picks recently. But I’ve been surprised by how much money has come in on the Rams.”
The loss of Donald to retirement this offseason has gone a bit under the radar, which is a testament to how successful Rams GM Les Snead has been at hitting on recent draft picks.
They’re well set up for life after Donald, with the emergence of Kobie Turner and Byron Young, two standouts on the defensive front who quickly made an impact as rookies last season. The team invested in the defensive line again after using their first two picks this year on Jared Verse and Braden Fiske.
On the other hand, the Rams are thin at linebacker after trading Ernest Jones IV to the Tennessee Titans. They also have uncertainty with an older secondary that has injury concerns. And let’s not overlook the departure of Raheem Morris, the former defensive coordinator who became the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons. New defensive coordinator Chris Shula will have the daunting task of maintaining a productive defense without leaning on Donald’s greatness.
But the sharps aren’t wrong to take a chance on coach Sean McVay and Stafford, especially after what the Rams did as one of the surprise teams that made the playoffs last season. The Rams will push the San Francisco 49ers for the division, but that won’t be easy after the defending NFC champions got Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams to report this week.
As for the team the public is backing to win it all, Murray mentioned the Pittsburgh Steelers, at 60–1, are the biggest liability for the Westgate SuperBook this NFL season. He’s also noticed plenty of future bets on the home team, the Las Vegas Raiders, who are longshots at 100–1 to win the Super Bowl in New Orleans.
“Certain teams just have really big fan bases and they ride a lot of money in the futures book,” says Murray, who’s been working with the Westgate for 12 years. “That’s the best explanation I can come up with for why we have so many bets on the Pittsburgh Steelers. … I know the Steelers have an awesome national fan base, huge following. I think that’s the explanation because I don’t see a whole lot there that indicates to me they can realistically contend for the Super Bowl.”
The Steelers are going to need to produce a high-scoring offense to truly become a contender in the competitive AFC. They haven’t been dynamic on that side of the ball in recent seasons, and that likely won’t change with Russell Wilson at quarterback and Arthur Smith as the offensive play-caller.
Surprisingly, the sharps and the public aren’t high on the 49ers, Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills to win the Super Bowl, according to Murray. The Bills opened at 12–1, but they now have 20–1 odds at the Westgate.
“There’s just not a lot around Josh Allen right now,” Murray says.
The Los Angeles Chargers are another team that hasn’t gotten much support in terms of future bets, even though they hired Jim Harbaugh and have Justin Herbert at quarterback. That makes sense because, similar to Allen, Herbert doesn’t have much help around him after the team parted with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler in the offseason.
As for trendy teams, Murray mentioned the Green Bay Packers and Houston Texans have been backed to either win their respective divisions or win Super Bowl LIX. But Murray isn’t too worried about those bets hitting because C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love might not play as well as last year when they delivered breakout seasons.
“I think they’re both great, but this will be the first time that defensive coordinators have been able to evaluate them for an offseason, and we’ll see what they will look like in their second years as starters,” Murray says.
I disagree with Murray when it comes to the Texans because I have them as my Super Bowl LIX winner. I do admit, however, it’s a tough bet, with many talented and experienced teams in the AFC.
If the Texans win it all, I might have to call myself a “sharp,” but until then, I’ll offer NFL betting advice as a football pundit who occasionally gets some right. Here’s the debut of my betting tip sheet for NFL games.
Manzano’s NFL Tips
Bucking a Trend: Stick with Bears (-4) vs. Titans
The Tennessee Titans have been a trendy underdog to bet on this week, and it might be because quarterbacks who were drafted as the No. 1 pick haven’t won a regular-season debut start in 22 years—a record of 0-14-1.
Caleb Williams will look to end that winless streak, starting for a revamped Chicago Bears roster that will get to open the season at home. Perhaps no No. 1 pick quarterback has walked into a better situation than what the Bears have created by trading for Allen and drafting Rome Odunze, along with many other notable additions. As a reminder, the Bears got the No. 1 pick because of the trade that allowed the Carolina Panthers to draft Bryce Young in 2023.
“I don’t think you should look at that stat and read anything into it,” Murray says. “The Bears have talent. They don’t have a first overall pick bad roster.”
Don’t follow the trend on this one. I’m taking the Bears and comfortable with them winning by more than four points.
Enticing Bet: Cardinals (+6.5) at Bills
The Bills have gotten a ton of support in Week 1 at the Westgate, according to Murray. But the public is overlooking the high potential of the Arizona Cardinals on the offensive side.
They have the firepower to keep it close, with a healthy Kyler Murray and the arrival of stud rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. But I’m mainly optimistic about this bet because of offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, one of the rising play-callers in the league.
Moneyline Dog: Raiders (+130) at Chargers
Yes, Harbaugh has won everywhere he’s gone, but as mentioned earlier, the Chargers don’t have much help for Herbert. This inexperienced offense will face a stout Raiders defense that could be better this season after the splash signing of Christian Wilkins.
It could also be a long debut for rookie right tackle Joe Alt against Maxx Crosby. And it helps that Raiders fans love to take over SoFi Stadium. Expect this dog to bark in Week 1.
Not So Risky: Lions (-3.5) vs. Rams
Maybe there’s some risk here because of how much the “sharps” love the Rams this season. But the Lions might have the best roster in the NFL and have one of the best home environments in the league. This is not an ideal first game for the Rams to adjust without Donald.
Stay Away: Packers (+110) vs. Eagles (-130) in São Paulo, Brazil
I want no part of this game with two evenly-matched teams on a neutral field many miles away from U.S. soil. I just don’t know what to expect. Both are breaking in prized free-agent running backs, with Green Bay’s Josh Jacobs and Philadelphia’s Saquon Barkley.
Very intriguing game, but just too many unknowns here.
“I feel the same way as you,” Murray says. “I don’t know how you follow a game like that. Sometimes, when they play these games outside the United States, the field conditions aren’t the best. I’m not saying that’s going to happen on Friday. São Paulo, Brazil, has hosted some massive soccer matches before.
“There are 15 other games to choose from this week. I think, to me, there are too many unknown variables with that Eagles game.”
Perhaps the public won’t listen here, because Murray mentioned the Eagles have been hammered at the Westgate.
“Right now, it certainly looks like we’re going to be pretty big Packers fans on Friday night,” Murray says.
Parlay: Commanders (+3.5) at Buccaneers; Giants (+2) vs. Vikings; Falcons (-3.5) vs. Steelers
Minnesota Vikings fans haven’t been happy with me since I picked them to finish 3–14 after the schedule was unveiled in May. This Week 1 matchup against the New York Giants might tell us in which direction the Vikings head in 2024.
Survivor Pool: Seahawks (-250) over Broncos
I’m sure many are backing the Cincinnati Bengals over the New England Patriots in their respective survivor pool. But if you’re playing in a pool that doesn’t allow you to pick the same team twice in a season, strongly consider the Seattle Seahawks. That defense will be improved under coach Mike Macdonald, and they’ll get to face rookie quarterback Bo Nix.
Best Over/Under Total: Cardinals-Bills (over 48, -108)
Again, there’s plenty to like about Petzing’s offense in Arizona. Don’t be surprised if this becomes a highly-entertaining shootout.
